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Not Just The Housing Market: Recession Threatens ‘Unprecedented’ Manufacturing Slowdown Dragging Into Next Year

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Growing evidence emerged this week that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, which have already caused a sudden collapse in the formerly red-hot housing market, have fueled an unprecedented slowdown for manufacturers—setting the stage for what could lead to a prolonged downturn in industrial production.

Key Facts

Though the slowdown in the U.S. economy this year has been led by a downturn in the housing market, the pain “appears poised to spread into the manufacturing sector,” Bank of America economists led by Michael Gapen wrote in a Friday note, citing data this week showing manufacturing activity falling to some of the lowest levels since the Great Recession.

Earlier Friday, S&P Global economist Chris Williamson said factories are cutting production at a rate that “looks set to gain momentum in coming months,” as manufacturers—faced with “unprecedented build-ups of unsold stock”—seek to bring inventories down to more manageable levels.

Inflation, higher interest rates and growing recession fears have led to “slumping demand for goods in both the home-market and abroad,” says Williamson, adding that new export orders last month “fell especially sharply” in a sign of “one of the steepest deteriorations in global trade since 2009,” according to the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index.

In light of the weakness in exports, Bank of America downgraded its forecast for fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth to 1.2% from 1.4% a week prior, with the bank’s economists predicting the U.S. will ultimately fall into a recession next year.

One bright spot: Bank of America says its pessimism about the outlook for manufacturing doesn’t include automakers, which continue to face a semiconductor shortage that could encourage them to bolster production even if there’s a recession.

Nevertheless, the overall slowdown in manufacturing will “likely have a noticeable effect on economic activity and—perhaps—employment,” Gapen notes, noting automobiles and auto parts make up only 5% of industrial production.

As experts weigh whether the nation may plunge into a recession, here’s how the economy is holding up:

Housing Market

One of the hardest-hit pillars of the economy this year, the housing market has suffered from dwindling demand as the Fed’s interest rate hikes drive up the cost of homebuying. According to the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday, pending home sales, which measure purchasing contracts signed on previously owned and existing properties, fell 4.6% in October—notching a fifth-straight month of declines. Meanwhile, existing home sales have plunged 32% since January.

Job Market

Despite waves of layoffs hitting some of the world’s biggest employers, the job market continues to show signs of strength, at least according to the Labor Department. Total employment increased by 263,000 in November—significantly better than the 200,000 new jobs economists were expecting, according to data released Friday. “Today’s job market report does not scream recession,” David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US, said in emailed comments Friday—before warning “the job market will falter” as the economy heads into a recession next year. EY forecasts the unemployment rate will rise from 3.7% to 5.5% by the end of next year, indicating the economy could lose as many as 3 million jobs.

The Fed

In a detailed summary of its early November meeting, the Fed revealed “a substantial majority” of officials believe a slowing in the pace of rate hikes will “likely soon be appropriate” as the economy shows signs of cooling, setting the stage for a half-point increase this month. Doubling down on Wednesday, Powell said, “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.” After the strong jobs data, any signs inflation is still hotter than expected could cast doubt on the Fed’s slowdown.

Stock Market

Stocks have rallied since late September but are still facing steep double-digit percentage losses. The S&P 500 is down 15% this year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has plunged 28%. In a Thursday note, JPMorgan analysts led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas predicted the S&P will “re-test this year’s lows” in the first half of 2023, implying another 14% decline. The bank cited a “proverbial snowball” of high borrowing costs, a deterioration in consumer savings and a rise in unemployment will contribute to the market’s poor performance.

Further Reading

Labor Market Still Stronger Than Economists Think: U.S. Added 263,000 New Jobs In November (Forbes)

Dow Down 300 Points After Strong Jobs Report — Here’s Why The Market’s Rooting For Higher Unemployment Right Now (Forbes)

Stock Market Will Get Worse In 2023 Before It Gets Better, JPMorgan Says (Forbes)

Entrepreneurship

Bitcoin ATM – Learn More About Quick Change Cash to Cryptocurrency

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Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoins have become a global currency. They are well-known globally and more popular than traditional money, for example American Dollar.

Bitcoin ATM

This article will tell more about Bitcoin ATMS with zero commissions, how to change crypto to cash in a short time or how to find the most beneficial Bitcoin ATMs.

  1. Bitcoin ATM with 0% commission
  2. Bitcoin ATM can change cash on several cryptocurrencies
  3. How to change cash on cryptocurrency?
  4. Where to learn about bitcoin ATMs?
  5. Is it safe to use Bitcoin ATMs?
  6. What are the Bitcoin ATMs locations?
  7. What are the opening hours of Bitcoin ATMs?
  8. Where can you find some information on exchange rates?
  9. Where can you find some more information on Bitcoin ATMs?

Bitcoin ATM with 0% commission

When you want to buy and sell bitcoin you do not have to pay an additional fee in your area like many different bitcoin ATMs charge (even 8%). Every bitcoin ATM provides transactions with 0% commission. What is more, the clients can get various discounts and enjoy higher exchange rates.

Bitcoin ATM can change cash on several cryptocurrencies

Although Bitcoin is the most recognizable cryptocurrency in the world, there are also other cryptocurrencies worth mentioning. What is more, they are also available in the bitcoin ATM. They are the following: Tether (USDT), Litecoin (LTC), Tron (TRX) and Ether (ETH). The whole process – it means converting cash to your favourite cryptocurrency lasts a few minutes.

It is very intuitive and every user can change cash to crypto without any problems.

How to change cash on cryptocurrency?

It is very simple to use the Bitcoin ATM. It is similar to withdrawing money from a standard ATM. The first thing you have to do is to insert cash and then scan qr code. Next, you have to select the transaction details (exchange rate and transaction fee) and finally the cryptocurrency is transferred to your wallet.

It is childishly easy to use the bitcoin ATM. As an outcome, it is also popular in Ukraine where the war with Russia takes place.

Where to learn about bitcoin ATMs?

If you want to get some relevant knowledge on bitcoin ATM and how to buy and sell bitcoin and litecoin you should visit the official social media of bitcoin ATM. There is a tutorial for beginners who have never tried the bitcoin ATM and want to know what bitcoin ATMs are.

The popular social media where you can find the information are You tube and Facebook. Furthermore, it is worth watching it regularly to learn more about special offers or unique discounts for anonymous bitcoin buyers and sellers.

Is it safe to use Bitcoin ATMs?

The clients should feel safe during converting cash to cryptocurrency. That is why, the bitcoin ATMs are located in public places, mainly in the shopping malls where the advance monitoring system is provided. What is more, it is also possible to change cash to cryptocurrencies in independent places. However, in those places the doors are locked and the person who is doing the transaction can feel safe.

Bitcoin ATM
photo credit: Sharon Hahn Darlin / Flickr

What are the Bitcoin ATMs locations?

If you need to change cash to cryptocurrency, you have to see the bitcoin ATM map. There you can find all bitcoin ATMs in your area. What is more, you can get some interesting details about the bitcoin ATM. There is provided the name of the city with a detailed address as well as additional information on the bitcoin ATM. Moreover, you can find there also a picture of the bitcoin ATM and available funds to withdraw at the moment.

What are the opening hours of Bitcoin ATMs?

If you are in Madrid, the capital city of Spain you can check the opening hours of Bitcoin ATMs Madrid online. At the same website where you can check the location of a bitcoin ATM, there is some information about opening hours. The majority of bitcoin ATMs are open 24 hours, 7 days a week and they are available in the shopping malls or independent places. However, some of them are available in limited time.

That is why, it is always worth checking the opening hours before you visit the bitcoin ATM.

Where can you find some information on exchange rates?

The exchange rate is the crucial information when it comes to converting cash to cryptocurrencies. However, it is not a problem when you use the bitcoin ATMs. At the website where the detailed address and opening hours are provided you can also find some information about the current exchange rate.

It is worth selecting the place that offers the best exchange rate before you leave your house.

Where can you find some more information on Bitcoin ATMs?

Before you make a transaction at a bitcoin ATM, you should learn more about the bitcoin ATMs. You can do it at the official website of the device or at one of the YouTube channels where the latest information and detailed tutorial are provided.

You should also visit Facebook and Instagram where the latest news is updated and find out that there are more and more bitcoin ATMs in your location.

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Finance

The Future Of Economic And Workforce Development

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Our economic attention currently is fixed on national policy, with growing risks from a debt limit deadlock and debates over inflation versus recession. But economic prosperity also depends on state, regional, and local policy, and now there’s a free guide to some of the best thinking in the field in the newest edition of the Economic Development Quarterly (EDQ).

EDQ is a leading journal overseen by the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. It brings together practitioners and scholars through “supporting evidence-based economic development and workforce development policy, programs, and practice in the United States.” (I’m a member of the editorial board, and also a contributor to this new issue.).

The new issue asked experts associated with the journal “what are the key research and policy questions facing economic development and workforce development today?” In order to reach a broad audience, including policy makers, academics, journalists, and the public, the issue is free for a limited time.

There are 15 articles in the issue, and their range and excellence make it impossible to summarize them. Some focus on companies and firms, including how entrepreneurs can be included in economic development, what policies and programs are most effective in supporting businesses and job creation. Other analyze how public economic development and workforce professionals in the field can be most effective in our complex and tangled systems.

Several articles examine changing workforce dynamics. How can policy engage with macro trends like globalization, high housing costs, and changes in commuting and working from home? Can greater inclusion for the workforce be part of an effective economic development strategy? What would economic development look like if it paid more attention to environmental, racial equity, and family and household issues?

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My contribution draws on my new book, Unequal Cities: Overcoming Anti-Urban Bias to Reduce Inequality in the United States. The book outlines how America depends on cities for innovation, growth, and productivity, but also how our political systems—regional, state, and national—are biased against cities.

That pervasive bias holds down both regional and national productivity and growth. And it perpetuates racially stratified inequality in jobs, economic growth, housing, and education.

Wealthy (and predominantly white) suburbs capture the lion’s share of urban economic growth while not paying their fair share of the costs. That ongoing and structural racial bias is perpetuated over time by our public policies and fragmented metropolitan governments. This in turn makes it very hard for cities to address these problems on their own.

I argue that hyper-mathematized models in urban economics divert energy from more empirical engagement on our economic and workforce problems. We need multi-disciplinary analysis of policy, with special attention to how seemingly neutral policies generate racial and other forms of inequality. And we must recognize how our metropolitan fragmentation and segregation hold back shared economic prosperity.

Although there’s a wide range of policy viewpoints in the EDQ issue, all of the authors use research and analysis to help improve the places where we live. That distinguishes this work from much of mainstream urban economics, which is skeptical of place-based policies. Standard urban economics favors individually-based approaches emphasizing education and skills, and encouraging mobility by companies and people.

Of course, education and skill development are essential components of sound policy, and several of the EDQ articles suggest how to improve it. But in the real economy, experts like those at the Economic Policy Institute show our policy bias towards individualized and company-focused approaches hasn’t led to shared prosperity.

Instead, as watchdog analysts like Good Jobs First point out, we far too often see wasted tax subsidies going to firms that don’t need them, without good jobs and other benefits that were promised in return for the tax breaks. Public education mirrors the unequal fragmentation of regional governments, with suburbs creating better education from their higher property tax bases and wealth while core cities struggle to generate adequate educational funding.

So if you’re interested in economic and workforce development, national and regional and city prosperity, and how equity and growth can be combined in public policy, get your free issue of Economic Development Quarterly. I’m proud to be in such distinguished company, and there’s a lot to learn from them.

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Finance

What To Expect From Altria’s Q4?

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Altria (NYSE: MO) is scheduled to report its Q4 2022 results on Thursday, January 26. We expect MO stock to see little movement, with its revenue and earnings aligning with the street expectations. Although the company should continue to see a decline in cigarette volume, given the declining market and higher inflation, pricing growth will likely help offset the revenue loss from volume. While we expect little movement in MO stock based on its Q4 results, it has more room for growth from a valuation perspective, as discussed below. Our interactive dashboard analysis of Altria Earnings Preview has additional details.

(1) Revenues expected to align with the consensus estimates

  • Trefis estimates Altria’s Q4 2022 revenues to be around $5.2 billion, reflecting a low single-digit y-o-y rise and in line with the $5.2 billion consensus estimate.
  • Altria sells its tobacco products in the U.S. Revenue is generated from selling cigarettes, oral tobacco, and smokeless products.
  • While the company is expected to see continued pricing growth, lower volume/mix will likely weigh on its top-line growth.
  • Looking at Q3 2022, the company reported net revenue of $5.4 billion, marking a 2% decline over the prior-year quarter.
  • The decline in revenue can be attributed to lower cigarette volume (down 9%) and the sale of its wine business in October 2021.
  • Our dashboard on Altria Revenues has details on the company’s segments.

(2) EPS likely to be in line with the consensus estimates

  • Altria’s Q4 2022 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be $1.17 per Trefis analysis, aligning with the consensus estimate. This compares with the $1.07 figure the company reported in the prior-year quarter.
  • The company’s net income of $2.3 billion in Q3 2022 reflected a modest rise from the $2.3 billion figure seen in the prior-year quarter due to a 90 bps y-o-y rise in operating margin to 58.9%.
  • For the full-year 2023, we expect the adjusted EPS to be higher at $5.11 compared to the EPS of $4.61 in 2021 and an estimated $4.83 in 2022.

(3) MO stock looks like it has some more room for growth

  • We estimate Altria’s Valuation to be around $52 per share, which is 16% above the current market price of $45.
  • At its current levels, MO stock is trading at a little under 9x forward EPS estimate of $5.11 in 2023, compared to the last three-year average of about 10x, implying that it has some room for growth.
  • If the company reports upbeat Q4 results and provides a 2023 outlook better than the street estimates, the P/E multiple will likely be revised upward, resulting in higher levels for MO stock.

MORE FOR YOU

While MO stock looks like it has some room for growth, it is helpful to see how Altria’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Ecolab vs. Philip Morris.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates

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