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Don’t Forget To Do Your Retirement Homework



The period when you transition into retirement is one of the most critical times of your life. It’s comparable in importance to the period when you transitioned into adulthood, roughly between ages 20 and 30. Think about it: Your decisions during that time put your life on a course with implications that have likely lasted to this day.

Keep this in mind as you decide how much time and effort you want to spend on planning ahead as you transition into retirement, which is roughly between ages 60 and 70 for most people. Your decisions during this time will impact your quality of life for the next 20 to 30 years.

Before you make any key choices, however, you’ll want to do some homework that will provide the information and insights you need to make the best possible decisions.

Let’s start with these:

Focus on the big questions

Here are the most important questions and decisions to focus on:

  • When will you retire from your current job, and will you work part time for a few years after you retire?
  • Do you have sufficient retirement income to support the life you want?
  • Are you adequately prepared for common risks during a long retirement, including paying for health care, inflation, and stock market crashes?
  • Where is the best place for you to live after you’re retired?


Of course, there are many more important decisions you’ll need to make, but start with these before adding any others to the list.

Prepare for your planning

To help you answer the big questions noted above, think about your goals for the life you want in retirement. Ask yourself the who-what-when-where-why of retirement:

  • Who do you want to spend time with?
  • What do you want to do during retirement?
  • When would you like to retire?
  • Where do you want to live that will best support the life you want?
  • Why do you want to retire? List both the positive advantages you expect from retirement and the negative things you don’t like about working.

If you’re married or living with a partner, you’ll want to discuss these questions with them and involve them in the most important decisions.

Take Inventory

You’ll also want to take inventory of all your financial resources, including these:

  • The amounts in your retirement savings
  • Your expected Social Security retirement income at the age you want to retire. Be sure to determine how these benefits might increase if you delay starting benefits to a later age.
  • The amount of any pension income, if applicable
  • Your home equity, if applicable
  • Any other assets or income that might help support your life in retirement, such as whole life insurance, income from a business or part-time work, or income from rental properties

You’ll also want to prepare an inventory of any debts you have, such as from a mortgage, credit cards, or student loans.

While you’re taking inventory, you’ll also want to locate and store critical documents, such as descriptions of your retirement and savings plans from your employer, medical insurance policies, whole life insurance policies, loan documents, and any other documents that describe your benefits and your rights.

Prepare a retirement budget

You’ll also want to prepare a budget of the regular monthly expenses you expect to have in retirement, including your mortgage payment or monthly rent; transportation costs, including gas and car insurance; food; utilities; premiums for medical insurance; and entertainment.

When preparing your budget for your regular monthly expenses, be aware that premiums for medical expenses and out-of-pocket medical costs are items that can change significantly when you retire. Before you’re eligible for Medicare at age 65, you might pay very high premiums for medical insurance. Once you’re eligible for Medicare, you’ll need to investigate your plan options carefully before you choose which plan to go with. The premiums and out-of-pocket expenses for Medicare, a Medicare Supplement Plan if applicable, and a prescription drug plan can be significant, so you’ll need to understand these amounts when you’re preparing your retirement budget.

MORE FROM FORBESTraditional Medicare And Medicare Advantage Plans Deliver Similar Results

You’ll also want to inventory the expenses that you don’t incur on a monthly basis, such as property taxes and homeowner’s insurance.

The ultimate goal

The ultimate goal of your homework is to help you understand whether you can satisfy the “magic formula” for retirement security for the rest of your life:

I > E, or

Income greater than expenses

Actually, this formula isn’t really magic—it’s just common sense.

MORE FROM FORBESDon’t Make This Retirement Mistake: Basing Your Retirement Decisions On A “Magic Number”

It’s likely you’ll need to spend a lot of time completing your retirement homework, but it’s well worth the effort considering what’s at stake.


Teacher, Police And Firefighter Pensions Are Being Secretly Looted By Wall Street



America’s severely underfunded public pensions are allocating ever-greater assets to the highest cost, highest risk, most secretive investments ever devised by Wall Street, such private equity, hedge funds, real estate, and commodities—all in a desperate search for higher net returns that, not surprisingly (given the outlandish fees and risks), fail to materialize. Transparency—public scrutiny and accountability—has been abandoned, as pensions agree to Wall Street secrecy schemes that eviscerate public records laws.

Our nation’s state and federal securities laws are premised upon full disclosure of all material risks and fees to investors: “Read the prospectus before you invest,” is the oft-cited warning by securities regulators. Nevertheless, teachers, police, firefighters and other government workers today are not allowed to see how their retirement savings are managed or, more likely, mismanaged by Wall Street.

For nearly a decade, the United States Securities and Exchange Commision has warned investors that malfeasance and bogus fees are commonplace in so-called “alternative” investments and, more recently, Chairman Gary Gensler has called for greater transparency to increase competition and lower fees.

Gensler has asked the agency’s staff to consider recommendations on ways to bring greater transparency to fee arrangements in private markets. “More competition and transparency could potentially bring greater efficiencies to this important part of the capital markets,” he said. “This could help lower the cost of capital for businesses raising money. This could raise the returns for the pensions and endowments behind the limited partner investors. This ultimately could help workers preparing for retirement and families paying for their college educations.”

Gensler has stated he would like to see a reduction in the fees these investments charge and has also commented on industry abuses such as ”side letters” which permit private funds to secretly give preferences to certain investors—preferences which harm public pensions.


But that’s not good enough to protect public pension stakeholders.

No one—including the pensions themselves—seems to care that the government workers whose retirement security is at risk are being kept in the dark.

The SEC needs to do more—actually alert public pensioners as to those abuses the Commission knows full well are rampant, at a minumum. Advise them, Chairman Gensler, to demand to see and read prospectuses and other offering documents related to their hard-earned savings.

Does the SEC think it’s kosher for Wall Street to conspire with public pension officials to withhold this information from investors—any investors?

Since my 2013 forensic investigation of the Rhode Island state pension exposing gross mismanagement by then General Treasurer Gina Raimondo which I accurately predicted would cost workers dearly; my 2014 North Carolina state pension investigation exposing that $30 billion in assets had been moved into secretive, offshore accounts and, most recently, my investigation of the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio, I have provided my expert findings to the SEC staff for their review. Each and every public pension forensic investigation I have undertaken has extensively discussed Wall Street secrecy schemes that enable looting. In my book, How To Steal A Lot Money—Legally, I quote disclosures from SEC filings that detail industry abuses.

Join me, Chairman Gensler, in giving government workers a clue, a glimpse, a peek, at the alternative investment abusive industry practices that are carefully guarded by Wall Street and being hidden from them.

Teachers, police and firefighters deserve a fighting chance to protect their retirement savings.

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It Is Time To Buy Bonds



US 10-year note prices are likely to rise through August. The monthly histogram below shows that July and August have been the two strongest months for the note price.

Monthly Return- US 10-Year Notes

Blue: Average Percentage Change

Red: Probability of a rise on that day

Green: Expected Return (Product of the first 2)

These numbers are static in the sense that they change little over the years. This is only one cycle, the one-year cycle, whereas there are many cycles operative at any one time. In order to get a reading on such other rhythms, a scan is run to identify other profitable price cycles. The graph below reveals the most valuable cycles that are operative at any one time.

10-Year Note Monthly Cycle


These cycles reinforce the seasonal tendency for notes to rise. Prices have risen in 60% to 65% of the time in these summer months. With the dynamic cycle also in ascent, the probabilities rise to about 65% to over 70%. There are similar and supportive developments in the Japanese and German fixed income markets.

The cycle projection must be confirmed by market activity. The daily graph reveals that price broke through a downtrend line.

10-Year Notes Broke Through Resistance

Here is a helpful sentiment indicator that supports the bullish view. The cover page of this week’s Barron’s points to much higher rates. Applying contrary opinion, this suggests lower rates and higher note and bond prices. The first objective is 123.0.

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Will There Be War Over Taiwan – The Next Spy Thriller



I usually go through a rhythm of reading one or two serious books, followed by a few works of fiction and with summer on the way I wanted to highlight a few of both. In that regard I have just finished Laurence Durrell’s ‘White Eagles in Serbia’, an old-fashioned espionage thriller where the hero Colonel Methuen is dropped behind enemy lines in post war Serbia (he speaks excellent Serbo-Croat) and becomes embroiled in a violent plot to overthrow Tito.

The book is a warm-up to reading Durrell’s ‘The Alexandria Quartet’, a work that nearly won him the Nobel Prize. Durrell was part of an interesting Anglo-Irish family, who largely considered themselves Indian – his brother Gerald, the naturalist and writer, touches on this in ‘My Family and Other Animals’.


Though I am not an expert on these matters, I found ‘White Eagles’ a more realistic account of espionage than much of what we see in the media today (Mick Herron’s ‘Slow Horses’ is good), and overall it is a tale of derring-do that is more in keeping with the work of the founding fathers of the genre – Eric Ambler, John Buchan, Erskine Childers and Ted Allebury for example.

It also made opportune reading given what seems to be an epidemic of espionage – with reports of the Chinese hacking group APT40 using graduates to infiltrate Western corporates and notably the admission by the head of Switzerland’s intelligence that Russian espionage is rife in that country (notably in Geneva – for which readers should consult Somerset Maugham’s ‘Ashenden’ as background material).

These and other trends – such as the outbreak of a heavy cyber battle last week (against Lithuania and Norway for instance) and the increasingly public ‘clandestine’ war between Israel and Iran (they have just sacked their spy chief) point to a world that is ever more contested and complex.


Secret World

One of the new trends in the space is cyber espionage – both in the sense of stealing state and industrial/corporate secrets, influencing actors (such as the manipulation of the 2016 US Presidential election) and outright acts of hostility such as the hacking of public databases and utilities (i.e. healthcare systems). Here, if readers are looking for some serious literature I can recommend two excellent books – Nicole Perlroth’s ‘This is how they tell me the world ends’ and ‘Secret World’ by Christopher Andrew.

I am personally more intrigued by the difference between a spy and a strategist. A spy’s work could well be described as the pursuit of information about someone who is acting with a specific intent, as well as a sense of their reaction function. There are plenty of examples – from Christine Joncourt (‘La Putain de la Republique’) to Richard Sorge (see Owen Matthews’ ‘An Impeccable Spy’).

In contrast a strategist may try to plot trends and the opportunities, spillovers and damage they may cause. The US National Intelligence department is good in this regard, becoming the first major intelligence agency to publish detailed warnings on the side effects of climate damage.

Spies and strategists might work together, but history is full of examples (LC Moyzisch’s ‘Operation Cicero’) where intelligence fails to make it through the strategic process or is simply ignored for political reasons (might the early warnings on the invasion of Ukraine be an example).

Asia next?

In the spirit of the Durrells and Flemings of the world, what issues might be of interest in terms of digging into unknown knowns and unknown unknowns. Here are a few ideas, most of which are Asia focused (we might see an uptick in Asia focused thrillers).

On the diplomatic front, an interesting recent development was the visit of Indonesian president Joko Widodo to Ukraine, and then Moscow. It was a rare visit to Ukraine by an Asian leader and potentially marks the emergence or at least aspiration of Indonesia (population 273 million) as an emerging world diplomatic player. What has intrigued me so far is that there has been little coordination by the populous emerging (largely Muslim) nations (Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan) in the face of high energy and food prices, and that potentially Widodo could play a unifying role here.

Then, still in Asia, but on a more deadly footing, if the Western commentariat is to be believed, China is preparing an assault on Taiwan, and looking to learn from Russia’s military errors in this regard. Other countries are reacting, and I suspect that there will be much intrigue around Taiwan’s ability to acquire sufficiently powerful ballistic missiles that could strike the coastal cities of China, and relatedly how long might it take Japan to produce nuclear missiles (my sources say they could very ambitiously do it in five months!).

So, whilst the espionage literature of the 20th century has tended to be focused on Geneva, Berlin and London in the 21st century we may find ourselves reading about ‘behind the lines’ exploits in Jakarta and Tanegashima.

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